Referrals started arriving today confirming that the cutoff is January 4th. That means they referred 8 days, the same amount as last month. Last March was the last month that they referred over 10 days. So for the past year the number of days referred per month has settled in at an average of 6 days. See the chart below for the number of days referred per month back to May 2005.
If we overlay each calendar year in the above chart (see below) the trend for 2008 so far is well below the similar trends for 2006 ands 2007. The scary data point on this chart is April (the next batch). For the last two years the April batch has been significantly smaller than the other months. In April 2006 we saw 5 days referred and in April 2007 we saw 2 days referred. I hate to use this chart to make predictions since we don't know why the April batch had been so small the past two years but if the trend continues we could be in for a smaller batch next month. It could just be a coincidence or maybe there is a valid reason that the April batch has been small. If we do see a significantly smaller batch next month then there has to be something to it, only time will tell. With a LID of 1/5/2006 we are pretty confident that we will be in next month but if our LID were further out I would not be so sure.
Someone asked me last month if I plan to continue updating these charts every month after we get our referral. I do plan on keeping up with them but if we get too busy once we are home with baby I may look to hand them off to another waiting family to update and post. If you are good with numbers and Excel and it is something you might be interested in let me know.