Don't drink the damn Kool-Aid

So there is a rumor out there now that the cutoff for the next batch is going to be the December 27th. Not that 8 days is a whole lot of days but most people (including us) are expecting a small batch because December 2oth is a pretty big day. So 8 days would be huge. We have been burned before by believing the rumors and disappointed when they don't come to pass. We are trying really hard not to get too excited about the possibility of them getting to the 27th this month and then what it means for our referral, which we can't even think about yet. So for self preservation we are still expecting a 3 or 4 day batch but ohhh, how we would love to be wrong.

Rumors. rumors and more rumors

The rumors regarding how far they are going to get with the next batch started last week. They range from Dec 20th through Dec 30th. So between 1 and 10 days. I think it is highly unlikely that we will be seeing a 10 day batch. The 20th is thought to be a pretty big day based on the online polls so I wouldn't be surprised if they only did one day. But we are hoping for at least 3 or 4 days. Probably won't be seeing referrals arrive this week, most likely we will see them early next week.

So it is looking more and more like our referral will not be arriving until the Spring or Summer which makes it more likely that we will be affected by the Summer Olympics in Beijing. The goods news is it looks like travel to China will not stop. One postive rumor on one of the adoption boards is that referrals and travel will continue during the Olympics. US agencies will just skip the sightseeing trip to Beijing. As much as we are looking forward to seeing The Great Wall, Forbidden City and the rest of the sights, we know the top priority is getting our daughter. We plan to travel back to China for heritage trips with Grace when she gets older so we will be seeing those sights eventually.

Guangxi

One of the positive side-effects of our long wait to adopt is that it gives us time to read about parenting, attachment and the history and culture of China. Jen's parents gave us a really cool calendar that focuses on one of the Chinese provinces each month. Once we know which province Grace is from, we will do as much research as we can about that province. In the meantime, I though it would be fun to post a picture of the calendar each month.



The Province for January is Guangxi. Guangxi is a mountainous region in the southern part of China. It has a population of about 49,000,000 and is famous for its picturesque Li river and surrounding mountains. Looking back at the referrals from our agency there seem to be quite a few children from Guangxi.


Will be interesting to see how many months of the calendar we get through until we learn where Grace is from.

Mid-Month Doldrums

Once again we are a couple weeks away from referrals arriving and there are no rumors to speak of. Usually by this time there are a couple rumors floating around but the last couple months have been lacking in rumors, probably a good thing for our sanity anyway.

The last batch was pretty disappointing considering everyone expected them to get much further than they did. We aren't anticipating much for the next batch either. Based on the online polls we could see another pretty small batch. But we are hoping that they get through at least another 4 or 5 days but we wouldn't be too surprised if they just got though 1 or 2 days. Have to prepare ourselves for the worst and hope for the best.

Since we are getting closer to referral I decided to start a baby proofing project in our family room this weekend. The speaker wires for our surround sound are starting to droop onto the floor, perfect fun for a little girl to pull on. So we went off to Home Depot and bought some wire conduit to hide all of the wires away. Probably will take me a couple weekends to get it all installed. Seems like a perfect winter project.

We were also happy to see our beloved New England Patriots beat the Chargers today and are off to another Superbowl. Go Pats!!!

Ya Mon

Thanks to everyone who voted in our vacation poll. You overwhelmingly thought we should take the vacation......so we are!!! We booked the trip last week so in a little over a month we will be off to sunny Jamaica. Unfortunately the resort that we have stayed at the last couple times didn't have any vacancies. So we found a new place to stay called Negril Tree House Resort. The place looks really nice and the hotel is right on the beach so that will be cool, I think we actually have an ocean view from our room. I think at this point it would be our 9th last childless vacation so we aren't referring to our vacations as "last" any more because we never know.

Friday Night Fun

On Friday, Jen and I decided to do a bit of a Chinese themed night. I was working in Boston for the day so Jen took the train into town and met up with me after work. We we had dinner in Chinatown at Shabu-Zen. We have been wanting to try Asian Hot-Pot for a while so we gave it a shot. The food was really good and we had fun trying something new.

After dinner we went to the Opera House to watch the Chinese New Year Spectacular Show. This was a traditional Chinese dance, singing and instrumental show. The costumes, dancing and music were great. Although we weren't really expecting the show to be so political. Apparently is was sponsored by the Falun Dafa (Gong) Association of New England. Many of the dance routines had themes of persecution and rising up against it. It was interesting to say the least. There were also quite a few families with adopted children from China there so that made it extra special for us.

After the show we went for dessert and drinks at Finale. Kind of funny when dessert costs more than dinner but it was really good. All in all, it was a pretty fun night for us.

Gone Baby Gone

No, not the movie. The little box on the CCAA website that they update every month when referrals come out to officially announce how far they got with the latest batch (and the review room). As of yesterday morning the box looked like this:

So according to the message they will no longer be updating the website with cut-off information. We need to contact our agency who have some new system where they can get this info. There were rumors about this box going away a while back, but then it never did so I assumed it was here to stay. Not really sure if the box going away means anything. It could mean that the CCAA is going to start referring partial days and they don't want any confusion if the box gets updated and some agency LIDs get a referral and some don't. Even without the box it should be fairly easy to figure out how far they got just through reading the adoption sites and rumor boards. I assume our agency will have some additional info for us about it when the next batch comes out. So we are not going to worry too much about it at this point.

***Footnote from Jen: Steve is not worrying too much about it. I, on the otherhand, am freaking out!! Ok, breathe....breathe....breathe.

The Backlog

One of the readers of this blog asked if I had done any analysis on the CCAA's progress of the Review Room vs. the Matching Room. We got through the review room back in November 2006, which was about 10 months after our Log in Date. The people who last got through the review room waited about 14 months after their Log In Date. So comparing that to the last group that got matched who waited over 24 months, the matching room is staying pretty consistent. Dates are kind of hard to graph in Excel so I charted out the number of months since LID that each group has waited to get through the Matching Room and the Review Room. The Review Room backlog seems to be leveling out. Probably safe to assume if you haven't made it through review yet your wait to be reviewed will be around 14 months. The Matching Room Backlog is growing pretty consistently each month and unfortunately will almost definitely continue to grow for the foreseeable future.

To Jamaica or Not to Jamaica, That is the Question

So we are at that time of year again where is is really cold up here in New England and we are missing the warmth of Summertime. For the last two years for Jen's winter break have taken our "Last Childless" vacation to Sunset at the Palms in Negril, Jamaica.

For the past couple years I have been banking my vacation time to use on our trip to China and take some time off afterwards to bond with Grace. I have almost 6 weeks saved up which would give me a nice chunk of time to stay home and get in the swing of being a dad. But then, we really don't know how much longer the wait is going to be and some time for Jen and I to get away from it all would definitely do us some good.

So help us decide. I put a poll up on the right where you can vote to tell us whether you think we should take the trip this year or not.

2 Long Years

Today is 2 years since we were logged in at the CCAA. I wish we knew how much longer we have to wait for our referral but unfortunately we have no idea. It could be anywhere from three more months to another year if we are affected by the Olympics.

Jen removed 5 more glass stones from the jar this week leaving 17 more to go. We did get some news this week that gave us a bit of lift. Our agency sent out their monthly update regarding the referrals they received this month. The email mentioned that the next Log In Date that they are expecting referrals for is our LID (1/5/2006). Although this doesn't mean that we will get our referral next month, our agency just won't receive any regular referrals until they get to our group. This was the first time that we have seen our Log In Date in print with the word "Next". It is the little things that keep us going lately.

Comparing the Years - January Edition

The CCAA just released another small batch of referrals. Not the smallest batch ever in terms of Log In Days but still smaller than expected as December was supposed to be a smaller month and the 5 days referred were believed to be smaller days. Below is an updated chart back to 2005 showing the number if days per month.




If you overlay the years on the above chart (see below), last year's January numbers were overall a bit higher and then trended down through April. In 2006 the numbers went up in February and then trended down through April. Not sure how much lower they can go from where they are now. But we have seen a couple 5 day batches, a 4 day batch and a 2 day batch so based on the trends we could see a smaller batch next month. December is also thought to be a relatively large day so just one more reason to think we may be in for a couple slow months.

December 19th

The CCAA just updated their website confirming that December 19th is the cutoff this month. 5 days is pretty disappointing especially since we expected them to get a bit further. Might be time to hibernate and have someone wake us up in the spring.

Bad Rumors

So the latest rumor about the next batch is that they are only going to get through December 19th. That would be 5 days. This seems like it would be pretty much in line with the number of days they have been referring the past few months but it would probably be close to the least amount of referrals sent in a long time. The reason is because the 17th and 18th are weekend days so there are very few, if any, people logged in on those days. Also 15th, 16th and 19th are thought to be relatively small days. The 20th is thought to be a fairly big day but based on the number of referrals sent the past few months it was expected that they would at least get through the 20th. So the 19th would be a big disappointment. It is still a rumor at this point but the longer we don't hear anything to the contrary the more likely it gets.


Based on the online polls there are less people logged in on December 15th through the 19th than there are on the 20th. So if we assume the CCAA sends about the same number of referrals out every month it is possible that we could see only the 20th referred in the February batch. Although, I do think a one day batch is pretty unlikely. We have heard in the past that sometimes the CCAA matches ahead a little. I think if they only get through the 19th with this batch it is likely that they actually matched some families with a LID on the 20th. But they probably didn't have enough babies files to match all of the families with a LID on the 20th. Since the CCAA does not send out partial days the families with a LID on the 20th will have to wait until next month when they have enough to match the full day.


We should know for sure late this week or early next week.

Bad Omen

The whole ladybug/Chinese adoption thing is kind of cute but at the same time kind of silly. Some people seem to take it pretty seriously. But I am not sure there are really that many people out there that really believe that ladybugs mean good luck or that referrals are on their way.

We got a good chuckle the other day when we were up in Gracie's room putting her Christmas presents away when we found the above dead ladybug on the floor.

It did get us thinking about the Olympics rumors that have been floating around lately. As you may or may not know the 2008 Olympics will be in Beijing, China this coming August. There is a lot of speculation out there regarding what will happen with adoptions during that time. The CCAA has not made an official statement so the rumors are all over the place. Some agencies are telling their clients that no referrals will be sent out after February or March and will start back up after the Olympics are over. Other agencies are saying there will be no travel approvals after May. Other agencies are saying that the only people whose consulate is in Beijing will be affected (The US consulate is in Guangzhou). There is also the issue of the increase in hotel and airline flight prices around the time of the Olympics. I think at the very least there will no adoption travel to Beijing during the Olympics which lasts a couple weeks. That would mean we could potentially miss the sightseeing portion of the trip.

At this point we are trying not to stress out about it too much as we really have no idea what is going to happen. But based on our LID and the potential for getting a referral in March, April or later we could very well be affected if there are any restrictions on travel. Seems like there is always something....we are just hoping for a couple big batches coming up so we can get to China before any of the Olympics stuff starts.

Christmas Loot

Grace got all kinds of cute gifts for Christmas....

- The Bennetts gave her a bear scarf and headband.
- The Shahs gave her a Bob Marley lullaby CD.
- Aunt Melinda, Uncle Jim and J-dub gave her a panda bear book and stuffed animals, a shirt and a couple winter hats.
- Uncle Stephen, Aunt Maura and the MKs gave her an On the Night You Were Born book.
- Grammy K gave her some pajamas.
- Grammy and Grampy gave her a skirt outfit, a Grace Christmas ornament and a CD player.
- We got her a Chinese Lullaby CD, stacking cups and a ring toss toy. We wrapped her gifts this year and haven't had the heart to unwrap them yet.

Grace's room is getting full. There isn't going to be room for her in it soon, she better get home quick.

Merry Christmas

Hope everyone had a nice Christmas. We hate to say it but we are kind of glad that it is over. The holidays are especially rough when you are going through your third last Christmas without your daughter. Christmas is geared so much toward children there are always constant reminders that we are still waiting to start our family. But we are moving on and looking forward to good things in the new year.


Nothing really out there for rumors on the next batch of referrals. We are hoping that they get to at least Dec 20th. We probably will hear something late next week or the week after.

Christmas Spirit

Last year with the ever extending wait we weren't really in a holiday mood so we decided to skip putting up a Christmas tree and decided to just have a low-key Christmas. We were really hoping that this would be the year that we were finally home with Grace. Here we still wait but we decided that we would celebrate the holidays this year and decorate our tree and put some gifts for Grace under it. We really think that this will finally be the last Christmas without her home. So with another snowstorm hitting us today we spent the day in the house decorating the tree.

Although Lucy really loves posing for our Christmas cards next year's card will feature another little girl. For those who didn't get one here is this year's card.

22 More Days

Jen took another picture of her jar of glass stones at work last week. This month the CCAA got through 6 more days so Jen took out 6 more stones from the Jar. Only 22 more stones left. Every month after referrals come out we sit down and take a look at the numbers and try to project out how many more months we have to get our referral. Based on the latest batch we think the most likely month that we will get our referral would be March 2008. There is a small chance that we could get our referral in February but also a chance we could get pushed up to April. But at this point it looks like March is a pretty good bet. Although all of that could change if they do another 2 day batch next month but we don't think that is going to happen. So we will likely be enjoying April showers or May flowers in China.

Comparing the Years

A few months back I started charting out the number of days that the CCAA was referring each month and comparing with the number of days referred each month last year. I noticed a trend that a similar number of days were being referred for the same month last year. Below is a chart of the number of days referred per month back to May 2005. The downward trend that we are have been experiencing can easily be seen. I can't find the numbers anywhere for the months prior to May 2005 but from what I remember they were referring full months back then which is why the wait time was as low as 6 months. If anyone knows where to find the number of days referred per month prior to May 2005 let me know.


If we break out the years and overlay them we can see where the trend was similar and where it diverted. The number of days referred per month was eerily close for Oct 2006 through May of this year. After May we started to see some separation but comparing this year to last year we still seem to see the same upward and downward trend. I am not really sure what it all means but there is definitely something to it. It could be all a coincidence or we could be seeing the results of some unknown factors in China that affect how many babies are allowed to be adopted at certain times of the year.

December 14th Cutoff Confirmed

The CCAA updated their website tonight confirming that the cutoff date is December 14th. That is 6 more days down. Only 22 more to get to our Log in Date.